I have been very anxious about COVID-19 since mid-January. That’s when I discovered the JHU CSSE’s Coronavirus Dashboard and downloaded the raw data so that I could do some analyses of my own. My results, together with what I was reading about COVID-19 in the scientific literature and in the news, set off alarm bells, and I began to tell people in my life that they needed to be prepared for the possibility of a moderate to severe pandemic à la the 1918-19 “Spanish Flu.”
A lot of people dismissed my concerns. I assumed that I just wasn’t making a good enough argument. Therefore, I sought even more information in an attempt to construct an even better argument for the need for preparedness. My argument was based on things like data and logic and full of recommendations from people who actually get paid to evaluate the evidence and make recommendations because people think they know what they are talking about. I assumed that this even better empirically supported, logical argument, people would believe that there was a need for preparedness. I also assumed that they would believe me because I do have an MPH and a PhD in epidemiology, after all, and I’m a tenured professor of public health who has taught master’s level beginning and intermediate epidemiology courses for 15 years.
This actually did work with a few people. Of course, it didn’t hurt that things kept happening in the way that I had predicted.* Other people in my life still weren’t convinced, though.
Then it occurred to me that maybe the issue is that I’m not that kind of epidemiologist (i.e. an infectious disease epidemiologist), I’m just a psychiatric epidemiologist. Maybe some people – including other epidemiologists – don’t think that psychiatric epidemiologists are real epidemiologists, the way that some people – including other physicians – don’t think that psychiatrists are real doctors? Or maybe they even question my skills as an epidemiologist?
To counter that possibility, I began to stress the fact that this wasn’t just my opinion – albeit one based on data and a certain level of knowledge and expertise on the subject usually greater than that of the person to whom I was speaking. In fact, other real infectious disease epidemiologists around the world who advised government agencies and were quoted as bonafide experts in the news were also saying the same thing I was. I even corresponded with one of them to check to see if I was saying anything incorrect! And still, many people didn’t believe me. In fact, some seemed to think that they knew better what we should do and what might – what they even seemed certain would or would not – happen based on their feelings, experiences, and, I imagine, what they have read on social media (although clearly not what I have been posting on social media). I’m sure that it isn’t anyone’s intention, but this is somewhat insulting – and hurtful. Maybe I’ve just wasted the past 20 years of my life. Who needs a PhD in epidemiology? Or statistics? Or evidence? Who needs the field of public health?
It doesn’t help that this is being mirrored at the national level – I mean, Trump doesn’t need any training, he has a natural ability for coronavirus.
Why do I care so much? Well, aside from looking for external validation of various things,** I am also concerned that the people who are in my life who are still in various stages of denial will not be prepared for what is coming. In some of these cases, their lack of preparation could have some impact on me and my family, which makes it even harder for me to let it go. How do I know when I have done all I can?
In closing, I will leave you with an article I recently read by risk communication experts Sandman and Lanyard: “Strange COVID-19 Bedfellows: Gnawing Anxiety and Under-Reaction.” They say that under-reaction is due to anxiety, which gives me some empathy. Maybe the under-reactors and I have more in common around COVID-19 than I thought. The article is worth a read – assuming you think that people who’ve been working on risk communication their whole careers might know more about it than you do 😉
Let me know your thoughts!
*BTW, I predicted a >33% drop in the Dow from its high, too, and we just passed that threshold today. If only I had gotten out of the market at the time I made that prediction, I’d be worth a lot more on paper right now. Sigh.
**Yes, I know that ideally one’s sense of validation should come from within. I’m working on it, although now I have to work on it over the phone, instead of in-person because of COVID-19
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